Can mortgage rates survive hawkish Fed talk during inflation week?

It’s inflation week and the continuation of the Iran conflict has complicated how the 10-year yield and mortgage rates may react to the inflation data. Even though oil prices have fallen sharply, many Fed hawks haven’t said anything positive about that change. In fact, some have even gotten more hawkish, believing lower oil prices can be inflationary because people can spend more.

So what will be the key drivers during this inflation week, with the conflict still a big question in the market? Let’s take a look.

Key insights on the Fed and inflation

I have written extensively on some of the recent Fed statements after oil prices fell, noting it doesn’t seem like they care much about that data. Certain Fed members even made higher oil prices a big part of a new hawkish stance, saying elevated oil and food prices would make it harder for inflation to fall. But now that oil prices are down, some of those same Fed members have said that lower oil prices can keep inflation up by spurring more demand.

Here are some recent statements from the Fed, and be mindful that this was said after oil prices had fallen.

Today, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, formerly a big dove, said this in a speech at the New York Association for Business Economics:

• “A rate hike should be on the table if this week’s inflation data come in hot.”
• “Inflation becomes like pornography. I can’t define it…[but] I know it when I see it. That’s not how central bankers should think about inflation.”

Those statement are on top of comments Waller made last week at a conference in Rome:

• “So I was willing to tolerate a longer movement back toward 2% target based on the labor market. But … those risks have completely flipped around now. The labor market seems to be stabilizing in the U.S., and inflation’s been taking off. So then that changes how you might want to think about policy.”

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said this on CNBC June 30:

• “If consumer data holds up, Fed policy may not be restrictive enough.”
• “Inflation is still too high, Fed may need to consider rate hikes.”
• “Job market is right around full employment, growth looks good.”

Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said this at the Aspen Ideas Festival on June 26:

• “I have penciled in one rate hike in 2026.”

We also learned from New York Fed President John Williams, a dove, what he needs to see on inflation data to warrant a rate hike. Basically, he said that as long as core inflation is pricing 0.2% on a month-to-month basis, we should be fine; anything more than that needs a response https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/warshs-first-big-call-whether-to-undo-last-years-cuts-cdcdb367?st=KZAonB&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

In short, whatever headline improvement we get from the fall in oil prices might now move the needle with the doves, as long as the month-to-month prints are running above 0.2%. This type of repricing of Fed policy is really showing itself with the 10-year yield as the conflict has dragged on.

Core inflation, not headline inflation, is what matters here. I know it’s confusing; the Fed made the conflict with Iran the basis of their hawkish stance and now they’re running away from falling oil prices, which will really benefit headline inflation. We will see headlines move around year-over-year data, as in the chart below, but the Fed is more focused on month-to-month core prints.

Conflict still brewing

Even though oil prices have fallen sharply, the conflict is still pushing yields higher; it did so last week, and this Monday morning the 10-year yield was still at 4.60%. We simply can’t continue to have a lack of clarity here forever; at some point, something needs to be done to make this drama end, or the bond market, even with lower oil prices, will still go higher with more conflict headlines.

If the bond market had acted differently, we would be having another conversation altogether. However, a hawkish Fed, inflation above target and the conflict still going on have pushed yields higher recently.

Conclusion

For this week, we can hope for some better news on the conflict and keep an eye out on core inflation data month to month. Even though we might see some better headline inflation numbers now with oil prices lower, a lot of Fed members simply don’t care about that, and until they say otherwise, we need to take that seriously. Let’s keep an eye out on that month-to-month core inflation prints this month as we get the Fed meeting at the end of the month.